Review - 1/14/17

Continued to cut my shorter term exposures this week.  I was fully long most of 2016, started to proactively cut in mid to late december on some potential offensive sell signals, now I've started to cut some more on a few short term defensive sell signals.  Here are other things I've seen.

(1) my biggest 2016 bet the IWM continues to live below the 20 day with no big flush yet

I still have piece of IWM on.  1/4 of my original bet going into election.  To get short term bullish and longer again, I want to see it test/flush the 50 day.  That's a juicy spot to get long and assume more risk.  So far it has been consolidating nicely.  I do love how the 50 day is curling up.

(2) we have had bullish Barrons covers and people crowing about how Soros is getting carried out

(3) we have a big bull - bear spread again

(4) range compression is flashing a short term bearish signal

There are some individual stock ideas I potentially love for 2017 but they might need some work in the short term.

CS
I love the 3 long term waves down in CS.  As Billy O says, you rarely have 4!!!!  Elliott Wave says that too.

I also love the 50/200 day cross.

The first proper entry was taking out the 50 to 200 days last year.  I would wait for a flush or retest of 50 or 200 day for next entry if you are not in it.  I'd love to see it flush that late December low, get close to that 200 day.  Then I might assume maximum risk like I did with IWM last year, it might look like that kind of trade for me.  At that point, you want your stop to be 2-3x ATR.  Or you could assume 8-10% stop loss off that 200 day.  I have half a position on from October/November - high 13s cost.

Z 

Z has some nice tight closes in a handle of a cup and handle.  Next official pivot point is top of handle.  riding the 50 day up.  There are some prior pocket pivots and entries lower that haven't stopped people out.  Zillow not reporting until 2/7.  No position yet.