Market Updates - A Bunch of Retests and Key Spots

We have had a nice market correction the last 2 weeks.  Here is an update on ideas I wrote about at year end or where I have positions outstanding:

URA

Retest of trendline breakout of my favorite idea going into 2018.

CCJ (big URA component)

Another Retest.  Very pretty 9 week potential double bottom base (within a larger base)

REMX

I used Friday's woosh down to buy back the 1/3 of the position I sold in late 2017.  High conviction idea. The ideal add or new entry is somewhere between Friday's low (gap fill, near low of last base) and 200 day of ~24.  The strongest stocks sometimes don't undercut where you think they will.  We'll see about this one.  I view this correction as a buyable correction.   For you Elliot wave folks....I feel like we had 2 "1-2's" in 2016 and 2017.  We then had a big 3rd wave up with now a first 4th wave correction.  When this first 4th wave ends, we should get one more big 3rd wave.  For you trend followers, that 200 is a major spot for a very strongly trending security. 

GDX

Another retest.  On some measures, GDX is the weakest of the big commodity complexes.  That monthly is still super super tight.  Maybe this is a double "double bottom"....one of my favorites that I used for VRNT in the earlier part of this decade.  If it is and it wants to be proper, we need a true rinse of the 2017 lows.  I think we will get it.  

That's it.  Good luck on your trading.  Keep focusing on your very best ideas and set ups.  And keep learning.  

Things to Learn From My 2017 Year End Review + 2018 Preview

This year was a "B" year for me.  Up 27% (vs 19% for S&P and 13% for Russell).  This probably should have been a 40-50% year given the amount of risk I take.  There is a lot to learn from.

Mistakes to Learn From

When you have an A position, size it like an A!

REMX was the strongest, tightest commodity stock in 1H and I sized it like a B idea.  The biggest leaders have the most relative strength, the tightest formations, and move first.  Like AMZN 03/09.  REMX was this in commodity land in 2017.

When you have a B position, size it like a B (or not do it at all :).

GDX wasn't as tight, didn't show the same relative strength like REMX, yet I sized it like an A!  Big opportunity cost, plus......

Let your stock stop you out.

The one thing I did do OK with GDX was buy it at the 50 days limiting the damage.  It didn't stop me out once despite being early.  But I put myself in position to be shaken out emotionally.  I lived with this too big of a position all year.  And capitulated on 1/2 in December.  Right when equity and bitcoin sentiment was at a fever pitch.  To quote Fight Club, "I am Capitulation."

2018 Preview

Commodities look like a huge theme to me.  We now have multiple A setups.

REMX broke out from a second stage Oneil box/flat base.

see above.  For me REMX is still sized like a B.  Terrible sizing to date!

URA looks like it completed a more proper year long double bottom.

Has basically consolidated for +18 months (if you look at the prior base which failed).  Had major capacity shuts.  Like REMX and TAN (Which I missed), URA is another way out of our long term resource, energy crisis.  Nice tight week last week!

My one mistake I had this year with URA was entering it prematurely (as a B position).  The dailies and weeklies were not lined up.  Had lagging RS.  This setup is way better.  Same amount of time on the bottom of the base as the left hand side of the base. We didn't have that in June!

I sized URA like an A after the recent capacity shut and pocket pivots.  It might be forming a shorter base with a base.  Any capitulation in this new handle, near the 50 day, would be a great add.

GDX might have completed a triangle with 3 major consolidations.

Look at this tight monthly!!!!  That is insane!

GDX around the 50 day is probably a great add.

Happy New Year.  Have a Great 2018!