Sunday, July 30, 2017

Commodities perking up!!!!

I could post 30 charts on secondary ideas like DBA, ABX, etc.  But I am going to keep it simple and just show you 3 major commodity ETFs to summarize the strong recent commodity action.  I think we are a 2-4 weeks into a major move in the commodities.  Laid out my thesis a few weeks ago.  These should be multi month runs after their bottoms a month ago.

REMX (Favorite Recent Idea)

This weekly chart was as pretty as it gets.  It was perfect.  We are now 4 weeks into a move.  8 week rule in effect.


Given the strength of the move and the fact this was a high quality base on base (a second 1-2), this has huge potential in this third wave.  I will not sell this until I see an obvious sell signal.  And I will be holding pieces of my position until they violate the 20, 50, and 200 days.  We are nowhere close to any of these on REMX only 4 weeks into its move.  That's how I handle my positions with big stock potential.   Fundamentally, I think REMX was the strongest pick too because it had more "new" in it. Has exposure to electric car, wind turbines, alternative energy, etc.



URA

Another powerful base on base.  Already had pocket pivots thru 50 and 200 days.  Forming a nice handle just above and still riding the 10 day.  Look how it rode the 20 day in its last power move.




GDX

The granddaddy of em all.  And the most hated.  Up through the 50 and 200 this week.  Shook off bad news in ABX.  The above 2 ETFs are unknown or "off the run".  The GDX is known but hated.  That's what makes big stocks if you are right - off the run or hated sentiment.  And a big catalyst/theme - like a new president with protectionist policies and a bottom in long term interest rates.  GDX about to take out its trend line.



Keep it simple.  Find your best ideas, focus on them, buy and sell them properly.  If you get stopped out, you get stopped out.



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