Commodities perking up!!!!

I could post 30 charts on secondary ideas like DBA, ABX, etc.  But I am going to keep it simple and just show you 3 major commodity ETFs to summarize the strong recent commodity action.  I think we are a 2-4 weeks into a major move in the commodities.  Laid out my thesis a few weeks ago.  These should be multi month runs after their bottoms a month ago.

REMX (Favorite Recent Idea)

This weekly chart was as pretty as it gets.  It was perfect.  We are now 4 weeks into a move.  8 week rule in effect.

Given the strength of the move and the fact this was a high quality base on base (a second 1-2), this has huge potential in this third wave.  I will not sell this until I see an obvious sell signal.  And I will be holding pieces of my position until they violate the 20, 50, and 200 days.  We are nowhere close to any of these on REMX only 4 weeks into its move.  That's how I handle my positions with big stock potential.   Fundamentally, I think REMX was the strongest pick too because it had more "new" in it. Has exposure to electric car, wind turbines, alternative energy, etc.

URA

Another powerful base on base.  Already had pocket pivots thru 50 and 200 days.  Forming a nice handle just above and still riding the 10 day.  Look how it rode the 20 day in its last power move.

GDX

The granddaddy of em all.  And the most hated.  Up through the 50 and 200 this week.  Shook off bad news in ABX.  The above 2 ETFs are unknown or "off the run".  The GDX is known but hated.  That's what makes big stocks if you are right - off the run or hated sentiment.  And a big catalyst/theme - like a new president with protectionist policies and a bottom in long term interest rates.  GDX about to take out its trend line.

Keep it simple.  Find your best ideas, focus on them, buy and sell them properly.  If you get stopped out, you get stopped out.

Midyear 2017 update

We are at an interesting cross roads for the market.  Leaders like AMZN that have been on +8 year runs have had hit big round numbers.  Put/Calls have been low.  The underperformance of commodity stocks have had a parabolic move which I retweeted recently.  The QQQs have started to weaken.  While interest rates have probably put in an all time low.

My best guess is the next bull market will be glad by commodities and inflationary trades.  Usually you need the market to get hammered and the next leaders to show relative strength. first

So here is a recap of some long term ideas have been tracking so you can pounce.

REMX (rare earths) -  Look at all of those tight weekly closes!!!!!!!  If this base works, the upside of this is a enormous.  The second base would be interpreted as a second 1-2.  Has had pivot points recently for possible entries.  Not sure if this base needs one more shakeout.  I have half a position.  A big one.  But not mach 2 with my hair on fire big.

URA - nice candle on the monthly.  Hasn't made a lower low.  Just had a pivot point through 50 day.  Might need one more low.  Same position size as REMX.

CCJ is a leader in URA.  Looks like it needs a final shakeout in its first base it has had in years.  I have a tiny position.

XLE - up through 50 day.  probably needs one more shakeout despite recent strength.   The monthly shown here had same setup as IWM last year.  Nice doji to end the month.  Small position.

SEA - might need one more low but just ripped the faces off of the shorts. pivots already through 50 and 200 day.

GDX and ABX.  Original pivot points have hit some stops.  Still like the long term ideas.  the monthlies look like they need a final shakeout.  But look at all those tight closes on GDX.  If they rinse these in next 2-3 weeks, they look like buys on shakeout plus 8% setups.  I'm confident those 2015 lows are the lows for a long long time.

CS just had pivot points too.  Beautiful cup in a larger cup and handle.  Wow!!!!  Still have a medium sized position which i was never stopped out on.