Mistakes to Learn From
When you have an A position, size it like an A!
REMX was the strongest, tightest commodity stock in 1H and I sized it like a B idea. The biggest leaders have the most relative strength, the tightest formations, and move first. Like AMZN 03/09. REMX was this in commodity land in 2017.
When you have a B position, size it like a B (or not do it at all :).
GDX wasn't as tight, didn't show the same relative strength like REMX, yet I sized it like an A! Big opportunity cost, plus......
Let your stock stop you out.
The one thing I did do OK with GDX was buy it at the 50 days limiting the damage. It didn't stop me out once despite being early. But I put myself in position to be shaken out emotionally. I lived with this too big of a position all year. And capitulated on 1/2 in December. Right when equity and bitcoin sentiment was at a fever pitch. To quote Fight Club, "I am Capitulation."
2018 Preview
Commodities look like a huge theme to me. We now have multiple A setups.
REMX broke out from a second stage Oneil box/flat base.
see above. For me REMX is still sized like a B. Terrible sizing to date!
URA looks like it completed a more proper year long double bottom.
Has basically consolidated for +18 months (if you look at the prior base which failed). Had major capacity shuts. Like REMX and TAN (Which I missed), URA is another way out of our long term resource, energy crisis. Nice tight week last week!
My one mistake I had this year with URA was entering it prematurely (as a B position). The dailies and weeklies were not lined up. Had lagging RS. This setup is way better. Same amount of time on the bottom of the base as the left hand side of the base. We didn't have that in June!
I sized URA like an A after the recent capacity shut and pocket pivots. It might be forming a shorter base with a base. Any capitulation in this new handle, near the 50 day, would be a great add.
GDX might have completed a triangle with 3 major consolidations.
Look at this tight monthly!!!! That is insane!
GDX around the 50 day is probably a great add.
Happy New Year. Have a Great 2018!
