Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Update

Hi Everyone -

I'm sorry I've been busy at work.  But for my swing trading, there has been little to do until recently.  I'm not going to post things just to post things.  But here is the update on how I have traded my 3 favorite positions in 2016 and how I've added and monitored a 4th.

LITE - Could be forming a new 5-7 week base.  Took 8 weeks to go up 20% out of its cup and handle.  I sold 1/2 of my position then.  Then LITE broke the 50 day.  I sold the other 1/2 that day.  Broke up above the 50 day tonight.  Stock is basically at prices where I sold on avg.  Earnings tomorrow night.  I don't love the current base.  I do love the fundamental story, but I don't get the short term technical setup.




VIAV - This broke the 50 day too.  I think this is forming its first base or handle after some pocket pivots and bottoming action. Had earnings tonight which seemed in line.  Headline beat, forecast missed by same.  Core biz was weak.  I could see stock rinsing on this.  I have not sold this.  This seems like an earlier stage idea.  None of my proactive sell signals went off.  I have not gotten stopped out on my entries (pocket pivot at 5.80).  If you defensively sell names when they break the 50 day, you are out.





IWM - The follow through day from a few months ago stuck.  Long term models I see no reason to sell.  But we could be 4 days into intermediate correction.



BSFT - Recent new idea.  Great reaction to "poor" earnings guidance yesterday.  Lots of tight weeks on weekly with a rinse last week and this week.  Earnings did decel.  Technically, I think this is going higher.  I like yesterday's lows as a stop.  Stock broke out from 39 handle in cup and handle and has formed a bigger deeper handle after.